Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World” is the fourth unclassified report prepared by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in recent years that takes a long-term view of the future. It offers a fresh look at how key global trends might develop over the next 15 years to influence world events. Our report is not meant to be an exercise in prediction or crystal ball-gazing. Mindful that there are many possible “futures,” we offer a range of possibilities and potential discontinuities, as a way of opening our minds to developments we might otherwise miss.
Some of our preliminary assessments are highlighted below:
* The whole international system—as constructed following WWII—will be revolutionized. Not only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India and China— have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes and rules of the game.
* The unprecedented transfer of wealth roughly from West to East now under way will continue for the foreseeable future.
* Unprecedented economic growth, coupled with 1.5 billion more people, will put pressure on resources—particularly energy, food, and water—raising the specter of scarcities emerging as demand outstrips supply.
* The potential for conflict will increase owing partly to political turbulence in parts of the greater Middle East.
From the National Intelligence Council via James Fallows via Andrew Sullivan, who actually was interested in a different report, which I cannot download, America’s Defense Meltdown.
Fallows says:
For a sample of something you might not expect, the following, from probably the most right-wing of all the authors in the book—a man whose cubicle wall, in the Senate office building where he worked, was adorned with a poster of Mussolini when I met him in the early 1980s. He is discussing the overall balance between the US Navy and the Russian and Chinese fleets—especially the looming Chinese “menace” that drives the need for new US ships:
Overwhelming any comparison of fleets is the fact that war with either Russia or China would represent a catastrophic failure of American strategy. Such wars would be disastrous for all parties, regardless of their outcomes. In a world where the most important strategic reality is a non-Marxist “withering away of the state,” the United States needs both Russia and China to be strong, successful states. They need the United States to be the same. Defeat of any of the three global powers by another would likely yield a new, vast, stateless region, which is to say a great victory for the forces of the Fourth Generation. No American armed service should be designed for wars our most vital interest dictates we not fight.
He also reports that they claim Iraq and Afghanistan are neatly wrapped up. My first idea of the author’s identity is Michael Ledeen but I don’t think he ever worked in the Senate. William Lind however did work in the Senate and loves to talk about Fourth Generation war but I have always thought he was a monarchist rather than a fascist. I could easily resolve this by reading the report but their server is being raped worse than an American taxpayer.
And I remember a report similar to Global Trends 2025, perhaps released by the military, that predicted a rise in Marxism. Anyone know where and what that is? I’d like to check it given the recent economic meltdown.
